Input costs are no longer what they used to be. Prices move rapidly, are less predictable and place increasing pressure on farmers’ margins. In such an environment, it becomes increasingly important not only to focus on yield, but on how an entire farming system will perform over time.

The past season highlighted this clearly. Nitrogen (N) and phosphate (P) fertiliser prices remain under pressure and continue to trend upwards, while fuel costs have risen sharply. Potassium (K) is more stable but plays a greater role in some crops than in others. Because South Africa is largely dependent on imported inputs, international price movements and a volatile rand are quickly felt locally.

Therefore, the question is: how do you structure your system to remain profitable?

Crop choice and input risk

In many systems, maize, wheat and oats still form the core of production. However, these crops remain heavily dependent on nitrogen and phosphate, meaning their costs move directly with these inputs. When prices rise, margins quickly come under pressure.

This is precisely where things become interesting.

Lucerne functions differently from most annual crops. As a legume, it can fix atmospheric nitrogen through a symbiotic relationship with Rhizobium bacteria. This reduces the need for nitrogen fertiliser and places lucerne in a different risk category from crops that rely entirely on purchased nitrogen.

Although lucerne requires sound management and has a potassium requirement, nitrogen remains the most volatile and often the most expensive input in many grain systems. The relative risk between crops is therefore changing.

A system under pressure

Farming is currently taking place in a market environment where several factors are exerting pressure simultaneously. Grain prices are under pressure, input costs are increasing and exchange rate fluctuations affect both costs and income. The result is simple: greater uncertainty, thinner margins and increased risk.

Where farming was once more predictable, the current environment requires a more deliberate and well-considered approach. The focus is shifting away from simply achieving maximum yields toward systems that can continue performing over time. Quality, input efficiency and diversification are becoming increasingly important.

Diversification as a management strategy

Diversification is not a new concept, but it is playing an increasingly important role in modern farming systems. Relying on one or two crops increases risk, especially regarding inputs such as nitrogen and phosphate. By combining crops, risk is spread and income becomes more balanced over time. The aim is not to replace maize, wheat or oats, but to build a system that can continue to perform under varying conditions.

Lucerne’s role in the system

As a perennial crop, lucerne brings stability to a system that would otherwise rely on annual production cycles. It produces consistent, high-quality forage for own livestock or as a marketable hay product – and offers sufficient flexibility to be used for grazing or hay production.

Because lucerne produces over several years, establishment costs are spread over the production period. Together with lower N fertiliser requirements and the positive effect on soil health, this makes lucerne a valuable component in a sustainable system.

Cash flow and risk distribution

One of lucerne’s greatest practical advantages lies in cash flow. While annual crops typically provide one harvest per season, lucerne offers multiple cuttings per year over several seasons. This means income is generated throughout the year – not just once per season. This distribution of income contributes to a more stable cash flow.

This production pattern also helps to spread risk further. A weaker cutting can be recovered by the next one, rather than losing an entire season’s income.

Lucerne also fits easily into different production systems. It can serve as a high-quality forage source, be used as part of crop rotations to improve soil health and support follow-up crops – or be utilised as a cash crop in the hay market. In mixed farming systems, it helps integrate livestock and crop production more effectively.

The importance of cultivar selection

The success of lucerne, however, begins with choosing the right cultivar. The selection of dormancy group and genetics must suit your environment, management practices and production system.

AgroFors offers a range of proven lucerne cultivars specifically developed for South African conditions and various production requirements, with options ranging from winter-dormant to highly winter-active. This variation determines not only yield, but also how long a stand remains productive and in which system and environment it will perform best.

Highly winter-active cultivars

Dormancy groups 9 and 10 are typically utilised for three to five years. AgroFors cultivars, including FORS 1011*, FORS 1012* and AlphaTec 921*, deliver high dry matter production and are particularly suited to intensive hay production under irrigation or in regions with high production potential.

Winter-active cultivars

Dormancy group 8 offers a more balanced option and is typically used for five to eight years. AgroFors cultivars FORS 811* and AlphaTec 821* combine good production with adaptability and can perform under both dryland and irrigation conditions, provided they are managed correctly.

Winter-dormant cultivars

Dormancy group 7 focuses on stability and is often utilised for five to eight years or longer. These AgroFors cultivars, FORS 711* and SA Select, are better adapted to dryland production than higher-dormancy groups, with greater tolerance to fluctuating environmental factors. This makes these cultivars suitable for systems where reliable long-term production and grazing are important.

The right cultivar for your conditions determines your cuttings, your yield and your profitability over time.

Value below the surface

Lucerne’s long-term value does not lie only above ground. Through nitrogen fixation, deep root development and the build-up of organic matter, it contributes to better soil structure, improved water infiltration and increased biological activity.

When a lucerne field is eventually removed from rotation, a part of the nitrogen becomes available to follow-up crops, reducing fertiliser requirements and improving yield potential in subsequent crops.

Profitability over time

Lucerne should be evaluated over several seasons. In the establishment year, it’s often less competitive due to high establishment costs and the establishment period before full production is reached. From the second year onwards, however, the picture changes noticeably.

With recurring production and lower input costs, margins improve and often exceed those of annual crops. Lucerne, therefore, shifts the focus from short-term yield to long-term sustainable profitability.

Ultimately, the question is not whether lucerne is better than other crops, but how you can integrate it into your system. The farmers who’ll adapt and continue to perform sustainably in future are those who deliberately refine their systems and make informed decisions.

In an environment of rising input costs and increasing pressure, lucerne remains a strong strategic crop, especially when it’s intentionally incorporated as part of your farming system.

AgroFors works with you to develop a system that is less dependent and better suited to your farming operation. Contact the team on (+27)(0)44-203-5295 or visit AgroFors for more information.

*Cultivar currently in the process of registration.